Why Sustainability Won’t Work

In a world where ever expanding population is reality, we are expected to reach nine billion by 2050, the challenge of meeting the needs of that population in a just and equitable manner within the Earth’s ecological capacity is a major difficulty for people who believe development can be sustainable. One of the most intractable problems facing the “sustainability” movement is how to persuade rapidly developing countries not to follow the development trail blazed by the West. “Do as we say, not as we do,” is the West's increasingly desperate mantra. If that does not happen and rapidly developing nations start consuming energy and water, eating meat and processed foods, and using automobiles and air travel at levels approaching those of Westernized countries, then it's game over for the environment and probably for Western culture as we know it.

The thing that affluent countries—meaning the U.S., Canada, Australia, etc.—are desperate to avoid is to have to radically alter their energy-intensive lifestyles. Although some European countries have made tentative moves in that direction, they have fallen woefully short of genuine progress. Telling people who love their comfortable, energy-intensive lifestyles that the only real solution is to cut back drastically on energy use is political suicide. No sane politician who wants to stay in office is ready to advocate such a position.

Westerners are only willing to make enormous personal sacrifices when faced with direct threats to life (such as war and invasion); indirect threats like global warming do not qualify. Even if every one of the energy hog countries adopted the most technologically advanced, energy efficient solutions to curtail their energy use, if the majority of the people in developing nations would adjust their energy consumption to that level, carbon emissions would be far too high to be sustainable.

Naturally, since we spoiled Americans (among others) will continue to refuse to adopt less energy profligate lifestyles, we will be forced to turn to geoengineering to address rising CO2 levels. Too bad we have an incredibly poor grasp of the unintended consequences of such behavior. But I can guarantee those lessons will be learned the hard way. When it comes to the carbon cycle, there's no such thing as a free lunch. Soon or later, the piper has to be paid.