Latest Good News/Bad News about Energy Production

In a recent statement, Robert Dudley, British Petroleum’s chief executive officer, tried to put to rest fears about peak oil, which he characterized as “increasingly groundless.” Dudley based his remarks on a BP study that predicted global oil production will increase substantially between now and 2030, largely as a result of increased output from previously unconventional sources like shale oil and gas in the U.S. and Canada. That means the U.S. should be self-sufficient in energy production by 2030, with a scant one percent derived from imports.

So, the good news is all you people out there who have been worrying about oil production hitting a peak and then rapidly declining can take a deep breath and relax. Doesn’t look like that’s going to happen in the foreseeable future.

But not so fast. The bad news Dudley delivered in practically the same breath is that increasing demand in India, China, and other developing nations for energy from all sources will cause carbon dioxide emissions to rise by more than 25 percent by 2030, pushing CO2 levels close to 500 ppm. According to most climate scientists, that situation would be an unmitigated disaster, especially since current scientific studies suggest that if CO2 emissions do not peak within three to five years we’re headed for serious problems.

Dudley and BP’s analysts see our future as one of continued addiction to high energy consumption. Their glinty-eyed predictions are based on existing trends and existing technologies, not on cross-your-fingers-and-hope-things-change-for-the-better scenarios so beloved by environmentalists, bright-eyed optimists, and people named Pollyanna.

Let’s, for a moment at least, engage in hard-headed realism. What does anyone see in the near-term future that would cause people in developing nations, especially China and India, to turn their backs on better, healthier, more comfortable, and more satisfying lives that will result from increased energy and material consumption? For that matter, what does anyone see that would cause Americans to stop consuming energy in the amounts to which we have become accustomed? Get real. Ain’t gonna happen.

So that means we will almost certainly get to experience the full-blown effects of global warming. I’m in my 70th year and basically will miss the worst. That’s my good news.