Wednesday, June 27, 2012

More Bad News from Coastal Louisiana

People who understand how crude oil affects living organic material must have seen the writing on the wall. And, yes, we’re talking about the April 2010 BP-Deepwater Horizon oil spill. A group of scientists from the University of Florida and two Dutch universities recently reported what they found after studying direct and indirect effects of the oil spill on Louisiana’s coastal marshes. Please note that the study combined biological and geomorphological field investigations with control sites (reference marshes) and coastal morphology modeling techniques so the researchers could understand the complex dynamics of key coastal processes. They were concerned about the health of Louisiana coastal habitats since salt marshes provide critical ecosystem services to plants and sea life.

The researchers found the oil-affected marshes had hydrocarbon concentrations more than 100 times that of unaffected reference marshes, a near total loss of above ground vegetation extending up to 30 feet from the water’s edge, and oil-driven plant death on the seaward margins more than doubled pre-existing rates of shoreline erosion. In simple English that means that the marshes on which most commercial and sport fishing depends on for vital nursery services are disappearing at twice the previously measured rate. Although the study found clear evidence of plant recovery at affected sites, overall the oil spill caused an accelerated decline of salt marshes that were already being degraded at an alarming rate as a result of stress introduced by human activities.

The authors conclude by stating: “It (the study) warns of the enhanced vulnerability of already degraded marshes to heavy oil coverage and provides a clear example of how multiple human-induced stressors can interact to hasten ecosystem decline.”

The trouble is most of us have already put the BP-Deepwater Horizon disaster in the “out of sight, out of mind” category and have moved on, literally and figuratively. We don’t want to think about the consequences or relate them to human actions other than those that can be categorized as technological accidents. We just want to get on with our lives as though nothing happened.

Source: Silliman, B. R., van de Koppel, J., McCoy, M. W., Diller, J., Kasozi, G. N., Earl, K., Adams, P. N., and Zimmerman, A. R. (2012). Degradation and resilience in Louisiana salt marshes after the BP-Deepwater Horizon oil spill. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Published online before print June 25, 2012, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1204922109; Retrieved on June 26, 2012, from http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2012/06/20/1204922109.full.pdf+html

Tuesday, June 5, 2012

Jon Christensen and Cities of the Future

A few minutes ago I read an article in Grist in which a grad student interviewed Jon Christensen, an environmental history professor at Stanford, about what kinds of cities will we build to encourage human and ecological health. Sad to say, it sort of struck a nerve because it was sooooo pie-in-the-sky. My comment on that interview follows.

Comment
Since we have demonstrated so powerfully as a global civilization that we do not wish to design and build cities that foster both human and ecological health, what possibly could lead anyone to believe that we have the political will or the determination to do that in the future? Academics who live in ivory towers generally know a great deal about theory but are not as well informed about the down and dirty practice of planning and building real cities populated with real people, many of whom are conservatives who soundly reject anything that smacks of green, sustainable, or urban-ecological responsibility.

The visceral desire by certain members of the student generation to do "something" about our mounting ecological crises has to be informed by the applied challenges of identifying and implementing solutions that can pass real-world political tests. To this date, I have seen nothing in the U.S. that would lead me to believe that effective urban-ecological planning solutions can appeal to both progressives and conservatives. Especially not at a time when millions of conservatives believe that Agenda 21 and sustainability are part of a plot by international socialists to deprive Americans of their property rights and individual freedoms. Anyone out there who does not believe that last sentence has probably not attended public hearings on land use planning and urban development in the last several years.

Plus, what in the world would we do about the many trillions of dollars already invested in cities that basically give the finger to ecological health? Too many people are comfortable in large square-foot homes on large lots in low-density suburbs, driving their SUVs everywhere. Check out mall and school parking lots if you want to see the scale of the problem we face.

That problem is NOT ecological in nature, it is cultural. And changing cultural direction-orientation is very difficult owing to inertia, indifference, ignorance, mindset, and greed. If that's the goal of student planners and ecologists, good luck; because they are going to need it.

Thursday, May 24, 2012

Average Life Span of a High-Tech Civilization

As the question was originally put in the famous Drake Equation (formulated in 1960-1961 by Frank Drake, Professor of Astronomy and Astrophysics at the University of California—Santa Cruz), what is the average lifetime of a civilization advanced enough to be detectable by intelligent beings located on other planets? In answer to that question if polled on the streets, many if not most Americans would likely express the opinion that it would last thousands of years. But, what if, as the historian of science, Michael Shermer, predicts, the average lifetime of a technological civilization is only 300 years?

A logical follow-up question is, why would high-tech civilizations only last a relatively short time? If we use our present circumstances as a guide, many might conclude that technological civilizations that fail do not recognize until it is too late that the civilization had become ecologically unstable and self-destructive. In other words, by the time a species has developed technology capable of communicating with intelligent life on other planets, they most likely also have created and are using that technology to destroy their environment and thus the foundation of their civilization. The dark thought we must consider is that when short-term economic gain (meaning self-centeredness and greed), ignorance, indifference, and system-wide inertia—once a system has moved in a specific direction in terms of allocating resources it is extraordinarily difficult for it to change direction—take precedence over ecological health, the results are predictable, disastrous, and nearly impossible to reverse.

That prospect means that the far greater majority of all high-tech civilizations might disappear within 300 years of becoming high-tech owing to the above listed self-destructive propensities. The bottom line is whether Earth’s current civilization has what it takes to work through the technology-ecology conflict we are currently experiencing to the other side in a way that ensures survival for thousands of years. To aid this mini-test, we’ll assume our base year for calculation is the approximate start of the Industrial Revolution, 1800 CE.

The reality should be easy to see. In today’s America, many millions believe global warming/climate change, smart growth, green development, and sustainability are made-up nonsense and constitute socialist attacks on individual freedom, liberty, and property rights. Many if not most of those same people also believe that their elected representatives should get rid of the US EPA or, at the very least, scale it back until it is ineffectual in preventing corporations from doing whatever they please in terms of the environment.

In the U.S. today, many millions are determined to stop or eviscerate federal programs that address the 5.14 billion metric tons of CO2 (2017 estimates) Americans inject into the atmosphere every year. They are determined to ignore the meaning of methane released by the Arctic’s melting permafrost, deny the rapidly increased rate of melting of Greenland’s glaciers and Arctic sea ice, deny the implications of ocean acidification and heating, and ridicule the science that documents the rapidly changing geographic range of species that result from global warming.

Who are the people who sneer about global warming? They are voters who have given rise to the current malaise in the White House and in Congress. Americans like them form what is perhaps the most critical reason the U.S. has rejected coherent and effective policies to decrease air and water pollution, biodiversity loss, and environmental destruction that threaten our prosperity and our quality of life. People holding that worldview have elected national representatives who refuse to allow the U.S. to engage in international agreements that seek to cut CO2 emission on a global scale.

Although most of us don’t want to think about it, my personal conclusion is our high-tech civilization has already hit the critical tipping point and is on the decline. On those rare occasions we do think about it, we tend to throw up our hands in frustration because solutions are too hard to figure out or too far into the future to worry about. Yet, in reality, we seem hell-bent on ensuring Carl Sagan's chilling but prophetic words are fulfilled: “Extinction is the rule. Survival is the exception.” The trouble is the vast majority of us just want to go on living the sweet life as though tomorrow will never come and we will never have to pay the price for our profligate behavior.

Guess what. That tomorrow is around the corner but it will affect the coming generations far more than us. You should be relieved if you are more than 30 years old in 2018 but not so relieved if you have children or if you are over 65 and have grandchildren. Those children are the ones who will have to live with the decisions we’ve made. Isn't it comforting for us to be able to push the risk into the future and on someone else and not worry about consequences?

With all the physical evidence, it is hard not to see a bleak future when you look at our present conditions. Acidifying oceans. Rising sea levels. Warming climates. Increasing drought. Dying coral reefs. Increasing mercury levels and anti-biotic resistant diseases. Every place on Earth has been adversely affected by human agency. Countless species have been lost; others are endangered and are standing on the brink of extinction due to habitat loss.

The way our species has developed over the last several hundred thousand years has ensured we focus the far greater majority of our attention on immediate or short-term challenges, like threats to our current well-being, and basically ignore long-term, slowly emerging issues, like climate change, habitat destruction, or global population growth. What was once an evolutionary advantage has morphed into something far different, far more deadly to our survival.

Here’s my prediction. We are a species with nearly countless individuals who are willfully blind to the consequences of our current actions and will wind up destroying our high-tech civilization with a fatal combination of greed and indifference. Our epitaph should be:

 

Although once we ruled the Earth,

we lacked the intelligence to survive.


Wednesday, May 23, 2012

Non-Sustainable America—Don't Worry, Be Happy

On 5-22-12 David Roberts wrote a column in Grist Magazine (http://grist.org/article/toward-a-future-that-makes-sense/) about "the intense need these days for positive visions of the future." The material below is my response to that column.

For the last four decades an urban planner I have had to deal with the world as it is, not with the world I wished were there. It would be quite refreshing to chat with Pollyanna over tea and crumpets (or in this particular case David Roberts) about delightful sugar-plum visions of the future or about things that are "more forward-looking, wide-ranging, optimistic, and, well, helpful." Certainly, that would make us feel oh so much better, especially those who have no jobs and gigundus college debt hanging over their heads and are too frazzled even to think about something as non-threatening to their daily lives as 5.5 billion metric tons of CO2 Americans inject into the atmosphere every year.

Quite frankly, despite what Roberts writes, it doesn't matter how many individuals get involved in "bike culture, livable neighborhoods, urban agriculture, sharing economies, distributed energy, and many other ways people in America today are trying to live better, more sustainable lives." Those issues are totally irrelevant to our future if government policy is not adopted and implemented that drastically pushes the envelope of ecological responsibility.

Now, for a dose of that real world I mentioned above. Has anyone out there found one committed right-wing, Tea Party supporter who would go along with federal policy that drastically pushes that ecological responsibility envelope so critical thresholds aren't crossed? And what about all those Republicans elected to office in Washington, surely they’d agree to jump on the environmental bandwagon. Permit cynical me to laugh.

Look at the real world another way. How many people in China and India are anxious to cut their energy consumption and waste production so the world can be better off. Hell, Americans have refused to do it so why should they?

So, go ahead with your feel-good crap about livable neighborhoods and bicycling to work and sustainable growth (what an oxymoron). It's a wonderful narcotic and will prevent people from feeling the pain of thinking about and confronting the real world. Besides, what does it matter? Everyone alive today will be dead before the worst hits. We won't even have the satisfaction of pointing the finger of blame at idiots like Jim Inhofe and the American Petroleum Institute.

Thursday, May 10, 2012

Short Global Warming Quiz

Many, if not most, of us are probably a little bored with all the crap we hear from competing positions on climate change/global warming. The left believes it; the right ridicules it. Most atmospheric scientists support it though some don't.

Enough already, we think wearily. Let's just get on with our lives and forget all that nonsense.

The question is, how many of us know the rock bottom basics of what is happening on our planet? Not many, is my guess. Here's a very, very short, one question quiz to test your knowledge.

Globally, how much CO2 is injected into the atmosphere each and every year?
     1. One million tons
     2. Ten million tons
     3. One hundred million tons
     4. One billion tons
     5. None of the above

Sadly, for the planet, the answer is #5. If you had guessed in excess of 33 billion metric tons annually you would be right on the money. Of that number, the U.S. alone is responsible for 5.5 billion tons (about 17 percent of the total and holding steady) while China is in first place, a dubious distinction at best, producing more than eight billion tons (about 25 percent of the total and growing fast).

Those 33 billion metric tons mean that for each and every person on Earth we inject about 4.8 tons, or 10,600 pounds, of CO2 annually into the atmosphere and have no intention of ever stopping or not until disaster is literally knocking on our door. FYI: The U.S. per person annual CO2 average is 18 metric tons (about 40,000 pounds), the record for advanced economies.

Another coffin nail.
Sources:
Here are the official government sources: UN Statistics Division (data collected by the CDIAC), http://mdgs.un.org/unsd/mdg/SeriesDetail.aspx?srid=749; and the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, U.S. Department of Energy: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/prelim_2009_2010_estimates.html 
       
Here's the easy one to find if you're lazy: 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions
       
Another interesting site: http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/2011/jan/31/world-carbon-dioxide-emissions-country-data-co2

Sunday, May 6, 2012

What’s Up with Bees?

What do onions, carrots, corn, eggplant, broccoli, cauliflower, celery, green beans, soybeans, chili and red peppers, sunflowers, tomatoes, almonds, cashews, apples, lemons and limes, blueberries, strawberries, grapes, alfalfa, cotton, and cocoa have in common? Those crops, and nearly sixty others in a list too long to print, are all pollinated by bees and since wild and domesticated bees are in serious trouble those crops may be as well.

So, you might ask, what’s up with bees?

For those Rip Van Winkle types who have managed to sleep through the last six years of national science news headlines, since 2006 bees have been dying every year by the millions and millions at the mindboggling rate of 30 percent each year. That rate is not a misprint, misquote, or exaggeration.

What’s significant is that five recent and completely separate scientific studies have linked bee colony collapse to a pesticide approved years ago by the EPA despite strenuous objections raised by the Agency’s own scientists. Of particular concern is a group of pesticides synthetically derived from nicotine known as neonicotinoids (neonics for short). Neonics are sprayed on seeds, not on crops in the field, so the pesticide is absorbed by the plant’s vascular system and attacks the central nervous systems of bees and other pollen collecting insects. One of those chemicals in particular, clothianidin, which is made by Bayer and is used on virtually all genetically modified corn and many other GMO crops, has proved to be of enormous concern.

Neonic pesticides affect bees in two ways. The first is in lethal doses that occur at the time of seed planting when neonic-infused dust hovers around agricultural fields. The second occurs when bees bring neonic-infused pollen back to the colony in small doses, which typically does not kill them immediately but damages their immune systems and homing abilities.

Even scarier, since most of us don’t venture into agricultural fields or farmsteads and can barely relate to how our food is actually produced, is that products containing neonic pesticides that provide broad-spectrum pest control are widely available from your local Home Depot or Lowe’s. Those pesticides include Bayer’s 2-1 Systemic Rose and Flower Care, Bayer’s 3-in-1 Shrub Plant Starter, Bayer’s Complete Insect Killer for Soil and Turf, and Bayer’s Fruit, Citrus, and Vegetable Insect Control. Use those products and every bee or bumble bee that contacts pollen produced by the treated plants will carry the pesticide back to its colony with disastrous results. And don’t even think that rain or watering will dilute or wash off the pesticide since it is internal or systemic to the plant. At least eight weeks must elapse after application before the pesticide protection is reduced.

On an interesting note, a Harvard University study that will be published in the June 2012 issue of the Bulletin of Insectology reports that four different bee yards, each containing four hives treated with different levels of imidacloprid (the neonic pesticide in the Bayer products listed above), experienced a death rate of 94 percent. Yep. How about them odds of survival?

But, not to worry. Bayer has an army of lobbyists in Washington who are working night and day to keep their neonics in widespread use. And since right-wing ideologues are determined to eviscerate EPA the very first chance they get, the Agency scientists who blew the whistle on the disastrous effects of Bayer’s products will probably get axed first so our American way of life won’t be threatened. Let’s hear it for the multinational chemical companies and their fight to make deadly chemicals part of the basic food groups. Fuck the bees.

So, the question asked above at the start of this short inquiry should be replaced with: What’s Up with Us? The answer is simple: who out there really believes that an intelligent species can’t implement a course to mass suicide? Yet another nail in our coffin..

For those enquiring minds who like to read for themselves, in-depth information can be found at:

Christian H. Krupke, Greg J. Hunt, Brian D. Eitzer, Gladys Andino, and Krispn Given. (2012). Multiple routes of pesticide exposure for honey bees living near agricultural fields. PLoS ONE, 7(1): e29268. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0029268; an open access journal freely available online).

Mickaël Henry, Maxime Beguin, Fabrice Requier, Orianne Rollin, Jean-François Odoux, Pierrick Aupinel, Jean Aptel, Sylvie Tchamitchian, and Axel Decourtye. (2012). A common pesticide decreases foraging success and survival in honey bees, Science, 336 (6079), 348-350.

Penelope R. Whitehorn, Stephanie O’Connor, Felix L. Wackers, Dave Goulson, (2012). Neonicotinoid pesticide reduces bumble bee colony growth and queen production, Science, 336 (6079), 351-352.

Andrea Tapparo, Daniele Marton, Chiara Giorio, Alessandro Zanella, Lidia Soldà, Matteo Marzaro, Linda Vivan, Vincenzo Girolami. (2012). Assessment of the environmental exposure of honeybees to particulate matter containing neonicotinoid insecticides coming from corn coated seeds. Environmental Science & Technology, 46(5), 2592-2599.

C. Lu, K. M. Warchol, and R. A. Callahan. (2012). In situ replication of honey bee colony collapse disorder. Bulletin of Insectology, 65, June 2012.

Monday, April 30, 2012

The Myth of Sustainable Cities

Note: this post is a version of an article published in the journal, Practicing Planner, in March, 2012.

          Over the past several decades, planners have been exposed to the concepts of sustainability, smart growth, green cities, etc. from numerous sources, the greater majority of which were created by urban and regional planners and landscape architects (McHarg 1969; Godschalk & Parker 1975; Spirn 1984; Rees & Wackernagel 1996; Innes & Booher 2000; Berke 2002; Wheeler 2004; Beatley 2010). Another level of complexity was added when the concept of sustainability science was introduced early in the 21st Century (Kates et al. 2001) and supporters began concentrating explicitly on the dynamic interactions between natural and social systems (Clark & Dickson 2003) and on how those interactions affect the challenge of sustainability (Reitan 2005). In addition, many universities have established sustainable cities centers or initiatives, e.g., Stanford University, University of Oregon, and University of Kentucky among numerous others. In addition, cities throughout the U.S. have also adopted sustainable initiatives, e.g., Seattle, Portland, Austin, Boston, and Jackson, Mississippi, to name but a few. As one final indication of the mainstream status of the sustainable cities concept, in 2000 the American Planning Association published its first Policy Guide on Planning for Sustainability.[1]
          This commentary focuses on cities and sustainability; therefore, defining our terms is a good place to begin. Without getting overly pedantic, the term city refers to relatively large, permanent centers of human populations engaged in socioeconomically productive activities. Defining sustainability is more problematic since varying definitions abound. Perhaps the best known definition of sustainable development is the one established by the United Nations World Commission on Environment and Development (1987), also widely known as the Brundtland Commission: “Sustainable development seeks to meet the needs and aspirations of the present without compromising the ability to meet those of the future.” At the United Nations World Summit (2005, 2) it was noted that the 1987 WCED definition of sustainability required reconciliation of environmental, social, and economic demands, or what have become known as the “three pillars” of sustainability.
          Since the Brundtland Commission’s hallmark effort, sustainable development has been defined in a number of ways. Fowke and Prasad (1996) identified at least 80 different definitions, many of which were competing and a number that were contradictory. Parkin et al. (2003) reviewed more than 200 definitions of sustainability and sustainable development. And Hopwood, Mellor, and O’Brien classified and mapped numerous different approaches to sustainable development, which they viewed as a “challenging and contested concept” (2005, 38).
          Regardless of how the term is defined, a critical consideration when the concept of sustainable cities is being discussed is environmental. City dwellers depend on productive ecosystems and habitats outside the city proper for food, energy, water, waste disposal, and renewable and non-renewable resources required to build dwellings, offices, and retail space and to manufacture the furnishings, equipment, materials, and supplies used in everyday life. That extended ecological footprint (Wackernagel 1994), also widely known as appropriated ecosystem, required by cities to function is seldom if ever considered by practicing planners in assessing the needs of cities or the effects of urban life on the larger environment (Jansson et al. 1999).  The goods and services produced by ecosystems are said to be “appropriated” through trade and commerce with distant cities (for example, coffee that is produced in the highlands of Ethiopia or Colombia is consumed by customers in Starbucks and other coffee outlets and supermarkets across the North America). When Folke et al. (1997) measured the appropriated ecosystems of cities around the Baltic Sea, they found those footprints to be at least 565 to 1,130 times larger than the areas of the cities themselves.
          That concept of appropriated ecosystem has meaning in real world terms as well as in academic journals. As an example, the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington Metropolitan Statistical Area consists of 9,286 square miles. If the mean (847) of the Folke et al. study is used to calculate that metro area’s ecological footprint, the result is an area of about 7,865,240 square miles, or 29 times the area of the State of Texas and slightly more than twice that of the entire United States. If the lower end of the Folke range is used as a multiplier, the appropriated ecosystem for the Dallas metro area is about 5,246,600 square miles, or one and one-third larger than the area of the U.S. Even though appropriated ecosystems are well beyond the control of practicing planners, that distancing effect does not make them less critical to the future of cities and their urban inhabitants or to the viability of the sustainable city concept.
          Exploring the many facets of urban sustainability requires an examination of the physical effects urban development has on natural environment systems. Readers can participate in that challenge by thinking about what the area that became Rome was like in 800 BCE, Manhattan Island in 1500, Los Angeles in 1600, or Chicago in 1700. No one would claim those areas were anything like they are today. Those involved in the process of creating or expanding cities destroyed or degraded almost beyond recognition the environments that had been extent and built vertical and horizontal hardscapes unlike anything encountered in a “natural” setting (Campbell 1996, 297). Residences took the place of forests, meadows became shopping centers, free-flowing streams were transformed into concrete channels or underground drainage systems, central business districts grew over riverside terraces, wetlands were drained and converted into industrial areas, and native vegetation was removed and replaced with exotic species. All the LEED-certified buildings and delightful, walkable, diverse, connected, human-scale streetscapes in the world will not disguise the fact that those cultural artifacts were built on the ruins of natural ecosystems that had been functioning in place for many thousands of years. Therefore, if cities are about destroying and degrading ecosystems, the question that must be asked is how then can they be characterized as environmentally sustainable. That question is especially pertinent today when virtually all of the world’s population growth for the foreseeable future is projected to occur in urban areas (Cohen 2004, 48).
          If we return to the concept of ecological footprint, all or almost all city inhabitants depend on food produced by agricultural enterprises at considerable distance from the city center. The most critical point about that situation is not the incurred transportation or carbon-related costs, but the very nature of agriculture. Cultivated fields are not natural phenomena; they are replacements of the previous natural ecosystems and destroyers of habitat and biological diversity (Daily 1997; Hall 2004). And, if destroying and degrading ecosystems is not sufficient evidence to indicate agriculture’s non-sustainability, the dominant agrochemicals used today are responsible for the vast majority of the eco-toxicity found in freshwater sources (Tilman 1999) and for the well-documented Dead Zones found throughout the world and off the coast of Louisiana (Rabalais et al. 2010).
          But that view of agriculture is not universal. According to the American Society of Agronomy (1989, 15), sustainable agriculture is one that, over the long term, “enhances environmental quality.” Although that statement in itself should be sufficient to raise eyebrows, critical observers may wonder how the quality of biological systems can be enhanced when the systems themselves have been ripped out and replaced by many hundred thousand square miles of corn, soybean, hay, wheat, and many other crops. Therefore, a logical question would be exactly what part of agriculture at any scale can be interpreted as environmentally sustainable. As far as biologists can tell, apple orchards, cotton fields, and rice paddies, etc., are monocultures rather than essential features of natural ecosystems. Agriculture may become economically sustainable but only at the expense of destroying indigenous ecological systems, habitats, communities, soils, and biodiversity. The conclusion is evident: agriculture can never be regarded as environmentally sustainable.
          What we have, therefore, is a situation consisting of cities that were created by destroying natural environments and urban residents who are supported by agriculture that was created by destroying natural environments and, yet, many planners blithely insist that system is or can become environmentally sustainable (Wheeler 2004). That existing situation with respect to cities is one of meaningless lip service being paid to the concept of environmental sustainability while economic sustainability is more often the true focus of attention. Thus, people who refer to cities as sustainable can best be understood as wistfully appealing to a fashionable myth or to a wished for fiction rather than reality. To see the world as we want it to be we are encouraged to close our eyes so we do not see the world for what it is. Lewis Carroll would have been hard pressed to create a more phantasmagorical view of reality.
          It is also important to explore, at least briefly, how urban water and energy supplies fit into the current conception of sustainable cities. Since many cities worldwide are located in arid or semi-arid environments, here’s a small but telling query that concerns the sources of potable water for Los Angeles. Los Angeles is located in a climate zone that from 1877 through 2010 averaged slightly less than 15 inches of precipitation annually. The answer to my inquiry is fairly straightforward: approximately 35 percent LA’s potable water is from the Eastern Sierra Nevada watershed via the Los Angeles Aqueduct, about 11 percent is a result of mining regional groundwater, and around 54 percent started as snowfields in the Colorado River Basin and the central Sierra Nevadas and traveled almost 450 miles in canals and pipelines via the San Joaquin-Sacramento River Delta and the California Aqueduct (Villaraigosa 2008). It might be instructive for planners throughout the U.S. to think about what has happened as a result of water wars between the City of Los Angeles and landowners in Owens Valley in the Eastern Sierra Nevada. The answer is painfully obvious: Owens Valley has been sucked dry. The primary question that remains is, what part of Los Angeles’s water supply can be thought of as environmentally sustainable now or in the foreseeable future. Perhaps readers should be thinking about Owens Valley and alkali dust storms (Reheis 1997).
          If we even engage in a cursory examination of the role energy consumption plays in cities, data collected in 2009 by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (2010) reveals that nearly 80 percent of our energy was from fossil fuels, a little over eight percent from nuclear energy, and slightly less than eight percent from renewable sources. And of the electrical energy produced in the U.S., almost 50 percent of the national total is from burning coal. Since almost none of those fossil or nuclear fuels are produced within cities, the energy consumed by city dwellers is imported, leading to yet another massive environmental incompatibility with the concept of sustainability, not to mention the telling fact that a whopping 92 percent of that energy is from non-renewable resources. Thus, sustainable energy remains an elusive sprite.
          While on the topic of energy, Siemens, Cisco Systems, IBM, Living PlanIT, and many other firms are today locked in competition to build what they refer to as eco-cities that “can manage growth and development in a sustainable way that minimizes disruptions and helps increase prosperity for everyone.”[2] In a similar movement, land investors proposed massive eco-developments in the mid-2000s for Abu Dhabi, China, Southeast Asia, United Kingdom, the U.S., and numerous other countries whose publicly stated goals were to re-shape the future by reducing or even eliminating the environmental costs of urban living through innovative use of technology. Planners might want to take those claims with a grain of salt or two, even for the relatively few projects that have made it off the drawing boards in these challenging financial times.
          Perhaps it is time for practicing planners to be honest with ourselves. Cities will never be environmentally sustainable, or eco-anything. To expect them to be is like expecting a pride of hungry lions on the Serengeti Plain to turn vegan and start rooting for tubers. The problem is that behavior is simply not in their nature.
          What cities can and should be is less environmentally and energy profligate. In other words, they should be greener, smarter, more equitable, and better than the existing cities most of us practicing planners have had a hand in planning and building. Marking progress toward planning better cities should be our metric, not something as intellectually indefensible as environmental sustainability. As part of that metric, it is critical for all practicing planners, council members, and Planning and Zoning commissioners to realize that working toward better cities is a means to a more environmentally responsible future, not an end-state/goal that could be achieved in X number of years or even decades.
          Planners and many others have long ignored the environmental aspect of the sustainability definition because that part of the tripartite equation—economy, society, environment—is the most difficult for modern North American culture to reconcile with our production-consumption lifestyles and deep-seated reluctance to give up the “In Growth We Trust” paradigm. Thus, the easy way out for planners has been to pretend we can have our cake and eat it too with sustainable cities (supported by sustainable agriculture) as well as diverse and productive biological systems undiminished in geographic extent. As all real-world planners should know, the only place where that could happen is if we dive down the rabbit hole into the fantasy world of Alice’s Wonderland.
          As professional planners we know what cities are and perhaps have an inkling of what they might become if we keep our eyes open, our minds sharp, and our creativity levels high. As a first step, let’s stop deceiving ourselves and faking it with city councils, P & Z commissions, stakeholders, and the public about what is possible and what is not. To say we can make cities environmentally sustainable involves smoke and mirrors and is intellectually unsupportable. To say we can help cities become environmentally less profligate and more economically and socially sustainable is on target and achievable. We should be talking about better cities, not sustainable cities. Deliberate obfuscation or misdirection should never be cards that planners play.
          To move cities along the greener-smarter-better path, we must begin by getting directly involved in how much our individual cities can improve each year, each decade, each half-century. We have to think of practical ways to reduce energy consumption, find methods that will leave significant swatches of land in a quasi-natural state so at least some ecological values remain, identify restoration projects that will result in more rather than fewer functioning habitats while improving biodiversity. Building more compact, denser, diverse, transit-oriented, walkable cities has little to do with environmental sustainability but has everything to do with creating urban places that are more environmentally responsible, more energy efficient, and more socially equitable.
          It may be instructive to reflect on why many practicing planners (and other urbanists) have been captivated by the myth of sustainable cities. Much like Plato’s allegory of the cave, where a group of chained prisoners mistook shadows on the wall in front of them for the reality that lay behind, something has prevented planners from turning around to see the reality. Perhaps the enticing shadows of the continued and often comforting cycle of production-consumption have mesmerized us. Perhaps the real world difficulties of confronting the power political structure involved in the “In Growth We Trust” paradigm have played an avoidance role. Perhaps it is something we desperately want to believe in and so we do. In any case, a quick scan of internet sites that delve into the topic of “Sustainable Cities” should be sufficient to demonstrate the myth’s pervasiveness in urban planning circles, even in numerous academic departments that perhaps should have conducted a more intellectually rigorous analysis before jumping on that bandwagon.
          In a way, I have saved for last the most important and practical rationale for abandoning the untenable sustainable cities concept. A critical incentive to never use the word sustainable, or any of its variants, with reference to cities, is political ideology. Many political conservatives hold dear to their hearts sentiments that Pirages and Ehrlich (1974, 43) defined as the Dominant Social Paradigm (DSP), or what many today identify with conservative (free market) environmentalism. At the risk of oversimplification, I’ll define the DSP as a system in which human domination over nature is regarded as the natural order; resources are believed to be enormous and will provide unlimited opportunities for humans; technological progress makes all, or almost all, problems ultimately solvable; and traditional economic growth is both morally good and sustainable (Rees 1997, 303). On the other side of the ideological divide is what social ecologists have identified is the New Ecological Paradigm (NEP), which can be summarized briefly as the continuance of human civilization depends on the survival of natural systems (Catton and Dunlap 1978, 1980).
          Since cities have a mix of voters aligned with both political ideologies as well as a great many people located somewhere between those polar positions, and also since a significant proportion of planners take issue with the DSP and conservative environmentalism, it behooves practicing planners to remove what threatens to become an enormous bone of contention from the public arena. We can do that by forgetting we ever heard the term “sustainable cities” and by focusing on environmental values people of all political persuasions share and support. Those shared values include saving money by cutting energy and infrastructure costs via techniques like low impact development, breathing fresh outdoor air, swimming in clean water, catching fish that are not laced with chemical poisons, bringing back wildlife diversity, restoring wetlands and riparian systems to more natural states, or improving urban parks by planting only indigenous species and systematically removing invasive and exotic flora and fauna. Even the most ideologically committed citizens are unlikely to advocate wasting taxpayer dollars on unnecessary energy or infrastructure projects, or to reject efforts that would result in more native trees and shrubs and thus more birds, bunnies, and butterflies in our parks and backyards. After all is said and done, it would be difficult to find people who would be vociferous opponents of improving everyone’s quality of life by building better and more environmentally responsible cities.
          But using the word sustainable to describe what we plan to do can cause political temperatures to rise and tempers to flare until we run the risk of having citizens no longer talking to each other but yelling across a growing divide (Hoffman 2011a, 2011b). As practicing planners we should be aware that not all environmental regulations are workable just like not all free market environmental solutions are unworkable.
          It should be noted that tolerance for competing or conflicting viewpoints has its own set of difficulties, especially when closely held value systems are in conflict (Phillips 2003, 5). A number of researchers believe that little progress can be made on critical social issues without rational public conflict (Cobb 2000, 2). Advocacy and community-based planners who acknowledge their actions are not value-neutral surely have played powerful roles in advancing social positions in planning, as was illustrated by Davidoff (1965). But, the difficulty with advocacy, as Cobb (2000, 25) noted, is as soon as people begin spouting “scientific facts” in support of a specific ideological position, those facts themselves become politically tainted and can easily be rejected individuals and groups who oppose that position.
          It is my contention that political differences can be moderated without significant disagreement when planners decline to support either side of what could become an environmental argument and instead emphasize shared values. Keeping our dialogue as free from ideological conflict as is possible while discussing shared environmental values—such as turning to low impact development and green infrastructure to reduce the cost of stormwater drainage—avoids the ideological divide and is surely a step in the direction of responsible environmental action. Another of those first steps in that direction should be to throw the term “sustainable cities” into the trash bin in the move toward a more pragmatic yet better and brighter urban future.
          I want to conclude this discussion by referring to a highly significant issue concerning cities and environment that was highlighted by Rees (1997) that practicing planners should never overlook or devalue. Planning efforts to green our cities can only go so far since ecological footprint is largely determined by individual consumption rather than by urban form and pattern, the built environment, or institutional function. Consequently, if practicing planners want to be at the forefront of building more environmentally responsible cities, they must be directly involved in community outreach efforts that focus on educating the general public with respect to putting shared environmental values into action and to the significance of those actions regarding the future of cities and their inhabitants.
          As Arie De Geus, the well-known organizational learning specialist (1988, 70) who also served as Dutch Royal Shell’s corporate Coordinator of Group Planning, perceptively noted, “. . . planning means changing minds not making plans.” Therefore, both practicing and academic planners must be creative about how to begin changing minds, including our own, as we plan more environmentally responsible cities.

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[1] http://www.planning.org/policy/guides/adopted/sustainability.htm
[2] See IBM web site: http://www.ibm.com/smarterplanet/us/en/smarter_cities/overview/index.html and the Siemens web site: http://www.usa.siemens.com/sustainable-cities/?stc=usccc025099