Why Trump Will Lose the November Election

In a perfect world, one might lead this discussion with the bold statement that Donald Trump will lose to Hillary in the coming Presidential election simply because American voters across ideological lines would overwhelmingly reject his pomposity, his well-documented misogyny, his nearly bottomless greed, his xenophobia/nativism, his breathtaking arrogance, and his unabashed demagoguery. But, this strange world of state primaries and national elections is far from perfect and such a result could never be guaranteed. That said, those who take a rational approach to life and elections should give a standing ovation to Maya Angelou for her sagacious observation: “When someone shows you who they really are, believe them.”

So, why am I confident that Trump, if indeed he were to be nominated by a bankrupt GOP whose long-term guiding principles have been eviscerated by The Donald himself, would lose the Presidential election? It comes down to simple demographics.

• Trump will win the  majority of white American male voters, perhaps by a ratio of 60-40. A significant national edge indeed but not nearly enough in and of itself to achieve victory.

• Trump will lose the vast majority of Hispanic voters, perhaps by a ratio of 80-20.

• Trump will lose the majority of Black American voters, perhaps by a ratio of 75-25.

• Trump will lose the majority of Asian voters, perhaps by a ratio of 70-30.

• Trump will lose the majority of LGBTQ voters, perhaps by a ratio of 65-35.

• Trump will lose the majority of white female voters, perhaps by a ratio of 60-40.

• Trump will lose the majority of independent voters, perhaps by a ratio of 55-45.

Not one of the above negative voting assumptions would be sufficient in and of itself to stop The Donald. My assessment is that, melded together, the demographics of Dump Trump built from the hubris crawling out of his own mouth constitutes a towering obstacle that The Donald will be unable to surmount in November.

What should be obvious is that I firmly believe that the GOP can not build a successful political party that contains Latinos, Black Americans, Asian Americans, and Donald Trump supporters. Of course, with the campaign continually outstripping all of my poor powers of prognostication, who the hell really knows what's going to happen? Still, I'd be willing to bet on the overall outcome IF The Donald turns out to be the official nominee selected by the GOP Convention.

Please note that I am NOT arguing that Hillary is a super wonderful candidate for President deserving of every one's vote. In truth, as someone who leans hard to the left, I detest her and what she and her husband stand for. But that's not the argument I'm making.

Come November, I, for one, will vote against Trump by holding my nose and gritting my teeth while casting my ballot for Hillary.

Author's Note: By this time it should be obvious my prediction was off, especially with respect to the Electoral College totals. For reasons why I think Trump won, curious readers may want to see my post of 11-11-16. In short, I believe Hilary was rejected because she was too establishment, too business as usual, too inconsistent (speaking out of both sides of her mouth), too untrustworthy and was brought low by self-inflicted wounds and hubris. That plus Trump appealed to those who felt threatened by contemporary social changes in America, especially by the (dangerous) others, such as Hispanics, Muslims, etc.