Can Donald Trump Be Re-Elected?

Let’s start with the Big Question of the day: Can Donald Trump be re-elected in 2020? The scary answer is yes. Here are a few things to consider before we get into a serious discussion. In the coming election, Hillary Clinton won’t be around for conservatives to hate, a strong plus for Democrats. James Comey won’t play the major role he did in Fall 2016. Russian interference will continue to be a problem, though how serious is debatable. Voter suppression in states controlled by Republicans won’t go away. Howard Schultz is likely to run for president as an independent, a thorn in the Democrats’ side. Depending on the Democratic candidate, the African-American turnout may be smaller than in the Obama elections. And as of mid-March 2019, no one knows what the Mueller investigation, those of the U.S. Justice Department’s Southern District of New York, or what the just started efforts of the New York Attorney General and the New York County District Attorney will conclude.

What we know for certain is Donald Trump will continue to be Donald Trump, loved and hated by nearly equal numbers of voters but looked on with increasing dismay and dissatisfaction by many others. But to really dig into the question posed above, we have try to understand why people voted for Trump in the primaries and the previous national election.

Trump has been on what appears to be a never-ending campaign that started in the primaries selling the doom of national decline and a desperation to turn things around. So, who buys that shtick? People for whom authority and traditional hierarchies make sense. People who believe the American dream for them and their children is either dying or dead. People who are alienated and feel abandoned by their government. People who resent minorities and immigrants and the changes they represent. People who will excuse Trump’s obvious imperfections as long as he appoints hard-right judges and Supreme Court justices. And people who are deep into authoritarian aggression. What Trump is tapping into is the anger of whites who feel they have been shoved aside as the undeserving are being given what is rightfully theirs. I must add most objective analysts see those feelings of deprivation as based on a badly skewed concept of entitlement.

It’s critical to consider how at Trump’s political rallies he invariably pumps up the crowds by ranting about border insecurity (“Build the Wall!” “National emergency.” “Border invasion.”). Trump legitimizes his supporters’ deep-seated anxieties by attacking minorities and immigrants—dangerous Muslims and Mexican rapists, murderers, drug dealers, and invaders—and by advocating positions like nationalism and white privilege that reassure his base that his solutions and theirs are one and the same. In that way Trump not only manipulates his supporters but also reinforces their ties to him as the only leader powerful enough to protect them through actions his spineless and corrupt opponents refuse to take.

As far as Trump’s base is concerned, he is an effective President determined to do what needs to be done. As President, he is unlike traditional politicians because he speaks his mind absent a politically correct filter and has engineered an economic prosperity that is the envy of the world. Although his base acknowledges and often frowns on his womanizing, his too frequent crudity, and his casual relationship with facts, they see those as minor imperfections common to all politicians that are overshadowed by his efforts to create a strong economy, his determination to end two costly wars, his white nationalism, his very popular emphasis on America First, his appointing conservative judges, and his hard-nosed stance against China and North Korea and especially against illegal immigrants. And don’t forget his promise to build a physical wall along our southwestern border.

To his loyal supporters, even to many more moderate Republicans, Trump offers far more to celebrate than to reject. If you look at the key issues of trust, leadership, strength, and values, Trump enjoys the support of his base and the majority of Republicans because they are convinced he is protecting their way of life from corrupt Democrats. He makes sure they realize that that their world—Christian, conservative, and white—is at risk unless their support for him is unconditional.

Of course, all the above material could either be pure puffery or leftist bias. But, recent social science research (citations are provided below) shows that Trump’s strongest supporters are driven by a combination of racial resentment, authoritarian aggression, and a social dominance orientation—the conviction that their group has the right to dominate others. It turns out the very characteristics exhibited by Trump that many Americans find disturbing—his relentless drive to dominate his opponents, his thinly veiled white supremacism, and his bullying tone and politically incorrect language—are exactly what his base responds to and needs psychologically because he is in reality speaking for them. Which means that unless Trump is shown committing an epically immoral/illegal act, his base and other conservatives will continue their unquestioning support.

In July 2015, when Senator John McCain realized Trump’s primary opponents didn’t seem capable of saying anything that could change the minds of Trump’s unwavering supporters, he came to a conclusion that was shockingly similar to Hillary’s later “basket of deplorables” comment: “What he did was he fired up the crazies.” Of course, it’s critical to realize that a great many people who wound up voting for Trump so disliked the national Democratic Party candidate that their vote was a symbolic Fuck You directed at Democrats in general and specifically at Trump’s political opponent: “Crooked Hillary.” “Lock her up!” And “Trump That Bitch!”

Democrats and independents have to remember it took a perfect political storm to get a loathsome toad elected in 2016 and perfect political storms are rare events. Especially considering Hillary ran a badly flawed campaign that ensured she would lose. Democrats don’t have to agonize that their brand is dead on the beach since reality-based fixes are available if the Party listens to people like Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and even to the youthful cadre inspired by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Of course, that’s a very big if.

Democrats simply can’t keep pushing the same old crapola the Clintons and Obama did by becoming centrists supporting corporate America and the wealthy elite and expect to win the hearts and minds of ordinary voters. This country needs genuine progressive change, not the campaign trail bullshit Obama fed us for eight years. The sad truth is if the Democratic Party doesn’t get back in touch with its better progressive self, Trump being re-elected in 2020 looks increasingly doable, despite Robert Mueller lurking in the wings since even he may not be able to dislodge The Donald from his White House throne if Republicans in the Senate continue their blind support.

If we are honest, we should acknowledge that in 2016 Trump voters were right about a number of issues. They were right about our political system being corrupt and broken (Big Money owns Congress). They were right about the status quo with the establishment leaders of both parties favoring the rich and powerful (Wall Street and the Big Banks) while everyone else sucks dirt. They were right about trying to overthrow the prevailing political order (Democrats becoming moderate Republicans). They were right about being cut out of the American Dream by both parties. They were right about Hillary being a terrible candidate. And, yeah, they were flat out wrong about a whole set of other issues, such as minorities, immigrants, white rights, and strident nationalism.

What Democrats like me want is a seasoned, left-leaning politician who, unlike Hillary, will run an effective national campaign for President based on a progressive platform. My hope is that by mid-2019 the Democrats will have identified a strong, competent, left-of-center candidate who will kick The Donald’s ass back to New York City where he and his children (plus Jared Kushner) will be prosecuted by the NY AG and NYC District Attorney and tossed into prison.

In the meantime, the goal for everyone is to get to the polls and vote for sanity in Washington and at the state level by pulling the proverbial lever for every Democratic candidate on the ballot. Yeah, I know how ridiculous that suggestion is considering real-world politics. But if Trump supporters aren’t taught a lesson about what kind of country most Americans want to live in, we could be in for a shit-storm of biblical dimensions. To avoid that nightmare we must get political and volunteer to campaign for genuinely progressive Democrats for national and state offices. And then vote and get your friends to as well. We are either part of transforming the Democratic Party or we’re spectators watching Donald Trump commit innumerable destructive acts against democracy while in office through 2024.

As an aside, those interested in the academic research referred to above may want to consult:

Smith, David Norman, and Eric Hanley. 2018. The anger games: Who voted for Donald Trump in the 2016 election, and why? Critical Sociology 44(2): 195-212.

Ludeke, Steven G., Camilla N. Klitgaard, and Joseph Vitriolc. 2018. Comprehensively-measured authoritarianism does predict vote choice: The importance of authoritarianism’s facets, ideological sorting, and the particular candidate. Personality and Individual Differences 123(1): 209-216, available online.

Womick, Jake, Tobias Rothmund, Flavio Azevedo, Laura A. King, and John T. Jost. 2018. Group-based dominance and authoritarian aggression predict support for Donald Trump in the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election. Social Psychological and Personality Science. Open source, https://doi.org/10.1177/1948550618778290